Prof. Tim CONGDON: Prof. Tim CONGDON’s Latest eMail re: The EU

Prof. Tim CONGDON’s Latest eMail re: The EU
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Prof. Tim CONGDON’s Latest eMail re: The EU!
Though what his opinion will be tommorow is anybody’s guess based on his track record of support and condemnation of UKIP!
It is hard to consider his comments as very reliable when one reads his first sentence, which would seem to contradict the first sentence of para. 2!
Then again anyone who believes that UKIP did well must be seen with some scepticism but I do suggest you overlook this idiocy and read on where he becomes a little more coherent!
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Hi,

just for the record and in case you are not on the mailing list of the academic theorist Prof. Tim Condon who has some interesting opinions on economics and a very variable view on UKIP – which seems to change on an almost daily basis on the one hand seeking to lead the party, despite very poor judgement of supporters and assistants! Then we see the poor chap denouncing the party and its behaviour only to see him flip flop back within hours – Not a very reliable lead to follow!
All the same here is the most recent eMail I have received, from Tim Congdon:

From: Timothy Congdon [mailto:timcongdon@btconnect.com]
Sent: 08 May 2012 10:01
Subject: Tim Congdon’s latest e-mail

Dear fellow members of UKIP (and others concerned about the UK’s relationship with the EU),

UKIP’s performance in last week’s local government elections was excellent news. Even better are the signs that the Conservative/LibDem coalition is fracturing and that Cast-Iron Cameron’s days as Prime Minister are numbered. Although a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU has been inevitable for some time, the timing has been murky and uncertain. The signposts towards the referendum are now becoming easier to read through the political fog.

I don’t have much to say about UKIP’s success in the 2012 local government elections except “well done, all round”. In today’s e-mail I want to focus on developments in the Conservative/LibDem coalition, as they are likely to have huge implications for UKIP in the next three years.

Cameron has been unpopular with Conservative Party constituency associations, and traditional Conservative Party members and party activists, from day one of his premiership. He failed to score a 2010 general election win despite being faced by a wide open goal, with that goal wide open because of Labour’s disastrous handling of the economy. (George Osborne was one of the most pathetic Shadow Chancellors of all time.) But the Conservative Party is inherently very loyal, at least until it can see that the next general election will be lost under the current leadership. It then finds ways to dump the leader. The message from the local election results is that Cameron’s “modernization” of the Conservative Party has failed, because it has alienated a big bloc of the electorate, perhaps more than 10% of voters. UKIP’s near-15% score in those wards it contested is the clearest evidence of Cameron’s mistake.

Boris Johnson went to the same school as Cameron and they are personally on amicable terms. (I sat next to Boris at a dinner in September 2005 and let him know my contempt for Cameron, which already at that stage was well-developed. Boris defended him vigorously. [I had been a sporadic contributor to The Spectator for many years, and Boris was then still editor of The Spectator.]) But Boris is a politician, and politics is politics. The key event here was on 25^th March, when the People’s Pledge announced that Boris had signed the document while campaigning in Romford with the very Eurosceptic Andrew Rosindell MP. (To remind, the People’s Pledge is a commitment to support a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU.)

It is unclear whether Boris could quit the London Mayoralty (which in principle lasts four years), find an empty, recently vacated and safe Conservative seat before 2015 (not easy in present circumstances), and challenge Cameron and/or fight in a Conservative leadership contest. Sure, it is entirely plausible that the Coalition would be massacred in the 2015 general election if Cameron and Clegg were to stay “in charge” (in charge!) until then, and that Boris would then take over as Conservative leader. But, in all probability, Cameron and Clegg will be removed in the next year or two, and the problem is then to find a leader – possibly an interim leader – until Boris takes over. (Although once a new leader is there, Boris may not have a look in.)

In this context I find it fascinating that David Davis and John Redwood are reported – I assume reliably – to be working together on an “alternative Queen’s Speech”. The news has a double significance. First, the traditional “conservative” (small “c”), so-called “right-wing” elements in the party dominate the membership outside Parliament. Right-wing Eurosceptics are also in fact, despite their inarticulacy and ineffectiveness, a majority of Conservative MPs. They have become so angry that they are at last finding their voice. Secondly, collaboration between Davis and Redwood is a major surprise. These two have spent most of the last 15 years loathing each other and have been politically at cross-purposes. (I believe that Redwood voted for Cameron in the 2005 leadership election, although I am open to correction. Bill Cash – a staunch Eurosceptic – certainly did.)

No one can predict exactly how events will play out in the next three to five years. But – in my judgement – we now have greater clarity on

The likely toppling of Cameron (and Osborne presumably) by his own party, probably ahead of – and perhaps well ahead of – the 2015 general election, and
The virtual certainty that the British people will be consulted in a referendum on EU membership in a timeframe (say, the next five years) for which UKIP must start planning.

I should emphasize that these are only my personal assessments and in no way do they have any official status in UKIP. However, it is very much my view that UKIP must now think actively about what we can do to ensure that the referendum delivers the result in which every party member believes. In party political terms, the “no to the EU” referendum campaign must be driven and dominated by UKIP, by people who really believe what they are saying, not by Tories or the small number of dissident anti-EU Labour supporters.

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Now from the sublime to the humdrum. Attached are a couple of recent pieces of work, which may be of interest to party members. One is my latest column for Standpoint, on the Bradford West by-election result; the second is a contribution to the latest Campaign for a Referendum circular.

With best wishes,

Tim Congdon

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